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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nebraska has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 1.4–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 1.4–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.91.26.7
20264.01.26.7
20274.01.36.8
20284.11.36.8
20294.11.46.9

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Co5920241978
Crescent Lk4420171980
Nenzel4320242018
Agate 22420242006
Swan Lake920231978
Piester Lake820241967
Kennedy820241977
Gordon820241975
Hampton820192019
Arthur720241999
Stratton620161977
Table620121973
Berea620191980
Kimball520072005
Sparta420152015
Winside419921992
Murray Lake420231987
Brownlee420241990
Bassett420242019
Sutherland420242024
Sumner319941994
Richland319981991
Hay Springs320242018
Julian219971997
Liberty220002000

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.