BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nebraska has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 1.3–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 1.3–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.91.26.6
20273.91.26.7
20284.01.36.7
20294.01.36.8
20304.11.36.8

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crescent Lk4920251980
Nenzel3120252018
Crawford2220252016
Wheeler Co1720251978
Piester Lake1420251967
Gordon820251975
Arthur820251999
Hampton820192019
Swan Lake720251978
Crookston720252019
Stratton620161977
Kennedy620251977
Kimball520072005
Sutherland520252024
Sparta420152015
Winside419921992
Murray Lake420231987
Bassett420252019
Sumner319941994
Richland319981991
Hay Springs320242018
Julian219971997
Liberty220002000
Surprise220161971
Brady220152010

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.