BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-headed Blackbird in North Dakota has surged: up 376% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+376%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in North Dakota: up 376% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in North Dakota is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 108 (95% range 69–148). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
69–14895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in North Dakota is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 108 (95% range 69–148). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202610465143
202710566144
202810667146
202910768147
203010869148

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk46220251980
Wimbledon25220251981
Buchanan23020251967
Montpelier22820251990
Danzig 221520252019
Forman20420251968
Braddock18120231988
Regan12520251968
Lakota 212320252010
Sheyenne Lk12020251980
Danzig11620141982
Lakota9820091968
Cooperstown9720251969
Denbigh8720251968
Edgeley8620251980
Sydney7719831967
Niles7420251989
Dunn Center6720251968
Lake George6220231967
Carpio4520231971
Webster4320241989
Rolla2920241969
Carson2520251988
Wild Rose2320251982
Gorham1620251968

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.