BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in North Dakota has surged: up 410% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+410%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in North Dakota: up 410% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 108 (95% range 69–148). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
69–14895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 108 (95% range 69–148). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202510464143
202610565145
202710667146
202810768147
202910869148

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk52720241980
Braddock27620221988
Wimbledon26020241981
Danzig 225020242019
Buchanan24220241967
Forman22920241968
Edgeley19220241980
Montpelier18520241990
Sheyenne Lk15820241980
Lakota 212720242010
Danzig11620141982
Wild Rose11220241982
Lakota9820091968
Sydney7719831967
Cooperstown6520241969
Lake George6120221967
Niles5620241989
Denbigh5220241968
Carpio4520231971
Webster4320241989
Regan4320221968
Rolla2920241969
Stanley2820241967
Carson2820241988
Dunn Center2420241968

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.