BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Minnesota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Minnesota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.0012
20262.60.0012
20272.50.0012
20282.30.0012
20292.20.0012

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chokio4220241969
Tenney3920161978
Appleton2520241978
Big Stone2520121995
Glyndon1820241978
Tracy1620242004
Glenwood1620191993
Fairmont1520231993
Chokio North1120241993
Bagley1120021995
Warroad920161999
Courtland820241978
Worthington820242004
Sherburne Nr620241990
Evergreen519891973
Grygla520161976
Franklin520241993
Cromwell419901990
Badger420161988
Tyler420211993
Brainerd420231993
Money Creek320141972
Dawson320241973
Wigwam Bay319931974
Mille Lacs319751975

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.