BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Wisconsin has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has collapsed in Wisconsin: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±705.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±705.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±705.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.61
20250.000.000.61
20260.000.000.61
20270.000.000.61
20280.000.000.61

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elderon619811981
Beaver Dam420041969
Fall River319921967
Chaffey219771976
Hudson220231966
Esdaile219891975
Cochrane220221976
Wis Rapids219911969
Oconto Falls220051977
Casco219841984
Pardeeville219881976
Hebron220132004
Raymond219761966
Minong119901975
Bayfield120002000
Dresser120171968
Union Twp119741974
Loraine119921966
Cumberland119791966
Weyerhauser120161987
Couderay119781978
Exeland119881975
Gilman119921977
Omro 2120102002
Unity119901990

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.