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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Kansas has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has collapsed in Kansas: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±881.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±881.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±881.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.7
20260.000.002.7
20270.000.002.7
20280.000.002.7
20290.000.002.7

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ruleton720142003
Jewell419791979
Albert320241967
Gray219981983
Wallace220211967
Covert220121983
Phillipsburg219991973
Berwet220032003
Leoti220102010
St John120171984
Coats119751975
Coldwater120121998
Ashland120141986
Lakin119731967
Wreford120232023
Kanopolis119791979
Hays119771977
Grantville119881988
Rock Creek119981998
Logan120171975
Missler119971977
Grigston120182005
Olsburg120112011
Jamestown120172012

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.