BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Arizona has surged: up 165% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+165%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in Arizona: up 165% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 941% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.08–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±441.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+941%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±441.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 941% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.08–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±441.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.002.8
20261.40.012.8
20271.40.042.9
20281.50.062.9
20291.50.082.9

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laguna3720231968
Palo Verde2120131999
Vicksburg1019891988
Araby620231993
Pomerene519791979
Cibola Lake520241993
Williams420012001
Alpine320192003
Mt Trumbull219791979
Sawmill220081988
Oatman219951995
Palo Verde 2220222014
Maine219951993
Hope 2220162014
Mormon Lake119711969
Hunt120041971
Quartzsite119931993
Dateland120121997
Willow Beach 2120172017
Mcneal119991999
Clay Spring120122012
Hope120031991
Carr Mtn119871987

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.