BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Idaho has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has fallen sharply in Idaho: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Idaho is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Idaho is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.0012
20262.20.0011
20272.10.0011
20282.00.0011
20291.90.0011

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Hill6520241990
Picabo2920211988
Naples2620241972
Preston2220231988
Henry2019831973
Mud Lake1520231988
Bates1520231988
Blackft Res1220161984
Circular Bu1019891989
Carey1020041989
Daniels Res1020181988
Springfield920181969
Blacks Creek820171971
Acequia720121979
Crane Creek620131988
Dougal Res519981991
Almo520001989
Craters420171979
Iron Springs420241988
Cascade319801969
Dubois320241977
Alturas319861986
Glenns Ferry319691968
Coolin319891987
Cabarton320231985

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.