BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Montana has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Montana. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.00.006.3
20263.00.006.2
20272.90.006.2
20282.90.006.2
20292.90.006.1

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.8820241995
Westby6220242015
Glentana3220222016
Great Falls2120241972
Augusta1720241976
Hay Lake1320191989
Twin Bridges1319761968
Ester Lake1320242015
Willow Creek 21120241982
Polson720191972
Highwood720181968
Circle720231969
Elliston720061977
Brusett620241982
Beaverhead620241973
Coleman Coulee620232018
Hebgen Lake620172017
Kalispell520241968
Two Dot520231998
Sunburst420071968
Virgelle420241979
Malta420241975
Leroy420191984
Webster420231978
Laurel420221984

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.