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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Montana has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-headed Blackbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Montana. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Montana is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Montana is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.90.006.1
20272.80.006.1
20282.80.006.0
20292.80.006.0
20302.70.006.0

Yellow-headed Blackbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.4520251995
Westby4320252015
Glentana3220222016
Augusta1720251976
Hay Lake1320191989
Twin Bridges1319761968
Glen1120251977
Willow Creek 21120241982
Virgelle1020251979
Polson720191972
Great Falls720251972
Highwood720181968
Circle720231969
Elliston720061977
Brusett620241982
Hebgen Lake620172017
Kalispell420251968
Sunburst420071968
Malta420241975
Leroy420191984
Laurel420221984
Saco420252015
Jordan320111982
Two Dot320251998
Webster320251978

Yellow-headed Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.