BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Great Basin has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-20%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
174Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 78% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 0.95–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 78% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 0.95–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.41.213
20267.31.213
20277.21.113
20287.21.013
20297.10.9513

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DorrisCALIFORNIA7562019
FallonNEVADA1612024
MerrillOREGON1412022
OthelloWASHINGTON1111991
PrincetonOREGON781985
Cedar HillIDAHO652024
UmatillaOREGON612023
Bear RiverUTAH612023
Ewan 2WASHINGTON522024
OreanaNEVADA462003
Virgin CreekNEVADA382018
Gardnerville 2NEVADA332018
EwanWASHINGTON332019
Catlow RimOREGON312023
MesaWASHINGTON312008
Modoc PointOREGON302018
PicaboIDAHO292021
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA252024
Fish LakeOREGON252024
CallaoUTAH252024
PrestonIDAHO222023
Modoc Point 2OREGON212024
Malheur NwrOREGON212022
HenryIDAHO201983
Iron SpringsUTAH191989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.