BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Great Basin has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
174Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 0.80–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 0.80–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.21.113
20277.11.013
20287.00.9313
20297.00.8613
20306.90.8013

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DorrisCALIFORNIA7562019
MerrillOREGON1412022
OthelloWASHINGTON1111991
Bear RiverUTAH1082025
FallonNEVADA842025
PrincetonOREGON781985
Modoc Point 2OREGON672025
Cedar HillIDAHO652024
Fish LakeOREGON612025
OreanaNEVADA462003
Virgin CreekNEVADA382018
EwanWASHINGTON332019
Blizzard GapOREGON322025
MesaWASHINGTON312008
Modoc PointOREGON302018
Mud LakeIDAHO292025
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA252024
KeystoneWASHINGTON232025
PrestonIDAHO222023
Malheur NwrOREGON212022
CallaoUTAH212025
HenryIDAHO201983
Iron SpringsUTAH191989
CortezNEVADA182025
WilburWASHINGTON162025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.