BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+7%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.005.1
20262.20.005.1
20272.20.005.1
20282.20.005.0
20292.10.005.0

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA382023
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA282024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA242024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA242024
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA182019
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA162011
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA152024
RavenWYOMING112013
DwyerWYOMING102016
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA92024
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA92010
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA82024
HighwoodMONTANA72018
CircleMONTANA72023
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA72022
BrusettMONTANA62024
Coleman CouleeMONTANA62023
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA62018
Two DotMONTANA52023
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA52022
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA52023
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA52015
LeroyMONTANA42019
WebsterMONTANA42023
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA42012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.