BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has collapsed in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1641.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1641.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1641.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.62
20260.200.000.62
20270.200.000.62
20280.200.000.62
20290.190.000.61

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BagleyMINNESOTA112002
WarroadMINNESOTA92016
CromwellMINNESOTA41990
BrainerdMINNESOTA42023
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA31993
Mille LacsMINNESOTA31975
Pine RiverMINNESOTA21996
BabbittMINNESOTA22004
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA21995
ChaffeyWISCONSIN21977
BerglandMICHIGAN11988
BackusMINNESOTA12017
CohassetMINNESOTA12004
BemidjiMINNESOTA11967
DebsMINNESOTA11999
LudeMINNESOTA11978
McgregorMINNESOTA12024
GreenbushMINNESOTA12018
NebishMINNESOTA12016
MinongWISCONSIN11990
BayfieldWISCONSIN12000
Union TwpWISCONSIN11974
CouderayWISCONSIN11978
ExelandWISCONSIN11988
GilmanWISCONSIN11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.