BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.9
20261.00.002.9
20270.980.002.9
20280.950.002.8
20290.910.002.8

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA592024
Crescent LkNEBRASKA442017
NenzelNEBRASKA432024
Swan LakeNEBRASKA92023
Piester LakeNEBRASKA82024
KennedyNEBRASKA82024
GordonNEBRASKA82024
HamptonNEBRASKA82019
ArthurNEBRASKA72024
LookoutOKLAHOMA71977
StrattonNEBRASKA62016
TableNEBRASKA62012
JewellKANSAS41979
BrownleeNEBRASKA42024
BassettNEBRASKA42024
SutherlandNEBRASKA42024
AlbertKANSAS32024
SumnerNEBRASKA31994
GrayKANSAS21998
CovertKANSAS22012
PhillipsburgKANSAS21999
BerwetKANSAS22003
LibertyNEBRASKA22000
SurpriseNEBRASKA22016
BradyNEBRASKA22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.