BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Rockies has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.2–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.2–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.MONTANA882024
Neponset ResUTAH782018
RandolphUTAH732024
NaplesIDAHO262024
HarmonyWYOMING232023
WickiupOREGON221988
Carter 2WYOMING222024
AugustaMONTANA172024
Seedskadee 2WYOMING162024
Green RiverWYOMING141984
Twin BridgesMONTANA131976
SeedskadeeWYOMING132023
MammothWYOMING122024
BoulderWYOMING122024
Willow Creek 2MONTANA112024
AlbeeOREGON101988
Big SandyWYOMING102024
CrowheartWYOMING92021
PolsonMONTANA72019
EllistonMONTANA72006
Ne EntranceWYOMING72021
Flamin GorgeWYOMING72023
LayCOLORADO62024
Crane CreekIDAHO62013
BeaverheadMONTANA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.