BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWetland birds

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Rockies has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 136% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.95–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+136%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 136% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.95–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.50.976.1
20273.50.976.1
20283.50.966.1
20293.50.966.1
20303.50.956.1

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset ResUTAH782018
Pablo Res.MONTANA452025
RandolphUTAH392025
NaplesIDAHO202025
BoulderWYOMING182025
AugustaMONTANA172025
Seedskadee 2WYOMING162024
Mtn ViewWYOMING142025
Green RiverWYOMING141984
Twin BridgesMONTANA131976
HarmonyWYOMING132025
SeedskadeeWYOMING132023
GlenMONTANA112025
Willow Creek 2MONTANA112024
Carter 2WYOMING112025
AlbeeOREGON101988
Big SandyWYOMING102024
CrowheartWYOMING92021
LayCOLORADO72025
PolsonMONTANA72019
EllistonMONTANA72006
MammothWYOMING72025
EtheteWYOMING72025
Flamin GorgeWYOMING72023
Crane CreekIDAHO62013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.