BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+118%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 39 in 2025 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 27–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 39 in 2025 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 27–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026522677
2027522678
2028522678
2029522678
2030532779

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA4622025
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA2522025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA2302025
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA2282025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA2152025
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA2042025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA1822025
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA1812023
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA1252025
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA1232025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA1202025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA1162014
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA982009
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA972025
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA972011
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA872025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA862025
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA771983
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA742025
ChokioMINNESOTA662025
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA642025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA622023
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA552019
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA542025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA452023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.