BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+133%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 27–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 27–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025522678
2026522678
2027532779
2028532779
2029532779

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA5272024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA2762022
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA2602024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA2502024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA2422024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA2292024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA1922024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA1852024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA1832024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA1582024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA1272024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA1162014
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA1122024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA982009
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA972011
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA771983
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA652024
WestbyMONTANA622024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA612022
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA562024
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA552019
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA522024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA452023
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA432024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA432022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.