BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+142%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 314% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±335.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+314%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±335.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 314% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±335.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.30.0010
20263.30.0010
20273.30.0010
20283.30.0010
20293.30.0010

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlytheCALIFORNIA511979
LagunaARIZONA372023
OnyxCALIFORNIA241980
Palo VerdeARIZONA212013
Parker DamCALIFORNIA202007
BrawleyCALIFORNIA202010
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA132024
VicksburgARIZONA101989
ArabyARIZONA62023
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA61994
Cibola LakeARIZONA52024
LenwoodCALIFORNIA41979
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA32004
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA32010
PearblossomCALIFORNIA32024
OatmanARIZONA21995
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA22022
Hope 2ARIZONA22016
BarstowCALIFORNIA21976
TronaCALIFORNIA21995
Havasu LakeCALIFORNIA22003
Jean LakeNEVADA21991
Ash MeadowsNEVADA22024
QuartzsiteARIZONA11993
DatelandARIZONA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.