BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±325%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±325%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±325%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.21
20250.030.000.21
20260.030.000.21
20270.030.000.20
20280.030.000.20

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PiersonIOWA62014
GaryINDIANA41984
HudsonIOWA32009
RichlandNEBRASKA31998
BryantIOWA22018
Sioux CityIOWA22022
LakevilleMINNESOTA22002
AustinMINNESOTA22021
New PointMISSOURI22006
JulianNEBRASKA21997
RaymondWISCONSIN21976
SheffieldILLINOIS11974
WayneILLINOIS11987
ChandlervillILLINOIS11984
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS11983
ShannonILLINOIS12000
Troy GroveILLINOIS12002
BrooklynIOWA12012
WilliamsburgIOWA11997
WashtaIOWA11979
Davis CornerIOWA11989
GazaIOWA12003
Rock ValleyIOWA11981
WrefordKANSAS12023
GrantvilleKANSAS11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.