BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-headed Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.001.6
20260.680.001.6
20270.690.001.6
20280.690.001.6
20290.700.001.6

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Agate 2NEBRASKA242024
Sheridan LakCOLORADO192016
NeegrandeCOLORADO172019
TimpasCOLORADO152013
YoderWYOMING152021
Arsenal 2COLORADO132024
PantexTEXAS102021
HookerOKLAHOMA92023
DoughertyTEXAS92022
Last Chance 2COLORADO82021
FloydadaTEXAS82011
RuletonKANSAS72014
FrionaTEXAS72021
BereaNEBRASKA62019
KimballNEBRASKA52007
DalhartTEXAS52006
FlaglerCOLORADO42003
PritchettCOLORADO42017
Murray LakeNEBRASKA42023
FeltOKLAHOMA41988
KeyesOKLAHOMA42015
BriggsdaleCOLORADO31990
Two ButtesCOLORADO32008
TrincheraCOLORADO31993
GroverCOLORADO32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.