BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-headed Blackbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Yellow-headed Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+118%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-headed Blackbird has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 119% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+119%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-headed Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 119% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.4
20261.40.003.4
20271.40.003.4
20281.40.003.4
20291.40.003.4

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Yellow-headed Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlamosaCOLORADO432024
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO122002
Piceance BasinCOLORADO102006
WaldenCOLORADO82024
BicknellUTAH82021
Mcphee Res.COLORADO72024
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH72004
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO61982
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO62024
DoylevilleCOLORADO52024
GardnerCOLORADO52021
YampaCOLORADO41982
Wray GulchCOLORADO42002
San LuisCOLORADO42021
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO42003
PiedraCOLORADO42024
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO42024
CastletonCOLORADO32022
CortezCOLORADO32008
AltonahUTAH31995
HannaUTAH32015
Mt TrumbullARIZONA21979
SawmillARIZONA22008
BufordCOLORADO22014
MoffatCOLORADO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.