BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Rail

RallidaeWetland birdsCoturnicops noveboracensis

Yellow Rail has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+59%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Yellow Rail

The Yellow Rail (Coturnicops noveboracensis) is a North American member of the Rails, Gallinules & Coots (Rallidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
6–19 in long (15–48 cm) — a marsh-dwelling waterbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 20 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 5 states, most concentrated in the Prairie Potholes.
Family
Rallidae · Wetland birds

Notable Yellow Rail TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Rail. See the full index history below.

Yellow Rail Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Rail is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±158.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Rail is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.01
20260.000.000.01
20270.000.000.01
20280.000.000.01
20290.000.000.01

Where the Yellow Rail Is Detected

BBS routes recording Yellow Rail, sized by most recent count.

Yellow Rail Population Trend by State

Yellow Rail population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Michiganinsufficient datan/a2
Minnesota+5%19819
North Dakota+3%19826
Oregoninsufficient datan/a1
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a2

Yellow Rail Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Yellow Rail population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes-16%198211
Boreal Hardwood Transition-1%19815

Yellow Rail Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 59% since 1979.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.