BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Rail Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Yellow Rail in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+5%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Rail Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Rail in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Yellow Rail Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Rail in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±179.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Rail in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±179.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.22
20260.060.000.22
20270.060.000.22
20280.060.000.22
20290.060.000.22

Yellow Rail Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Yellow Rail in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Badger620051999
Lake Bronson219991998
Brainerd120082008
Wylie119841984
Little Fork119691969
Erie119841984
Grygla120051985
Greenbush120241993
Backus119931979

Yellow Rail Population Trend in Other States

michigannorth-dakotaoregonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.