BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Rail In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Yellow Rail in Prairie Potholes has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-16%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Rail in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Yellow Rail In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Rail in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±142.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Rail in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.040.000.11
20180.040.000.11
20190.040.000.11
20200.040.000.11
20210.040.000.11

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Yellow Rail in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BadgerMINNESOTA62005
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA31984
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA32010
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA32005
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA21999
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA21995
WylieMINNESOTA11984
ErieMINNESOTA11984
GryglaMINNESOTA12005
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA12016
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.