BirdAnalyst
Guild · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In Minnesota

All statesMinnesota

27 species in this guild. As a group they are -33%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for wetland birds in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Wetland Birds In Minnesota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Minnesota is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Minnesota is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.95.3
20274.02.85.2
20284.02.85.2
20294.02.85.1
20303.92.75.1

Member Species In Minnesota

Wetland birds species in Minnesota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-95%
Franklin's GullLaridae-94%
Black TernLaridae-86%
American BitternArdeidae-82%
American CootRallidae-66%
Great EgretArdeidae-65%
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae-61%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-54%
Herring GullLaridae-54%
SoraRallidae-52%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae-43%
Virginia RailRallidae-41%
Least BitternArdeidae-35%
Nelson's SparrowPasserellidae-20%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-12%
Caspian TernLaridae-9%
Forster's TernLaridae-8%
Common LoonGaviidae-2%
Yellow RailRallidae+5%
Green HeronArdeidae+15%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae+113%
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+181%
American White PelicanPelecanidae+259%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+278%
Red-necked GrebePodicipedidae+352%
Sandhill CraneGruidae+356%
Ring-billed GullLaridae+825%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.