BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Loon Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Common Loon in Minnesota has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Loon Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Loon in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Common Loon Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Minnesota is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Minnesota is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.611.6
20261.10.611.6
20271.10.611.6
20281.10.611.6
20291.10.611.6

Common Loon Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Common Loon in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bemidji1219801967
Nebish1020231982
Edwards1020241973
Debs920241969
Tamarac Nwr620241991
Bagley620061995
Bigfork520241993
Blackduck520222004
Cohasset420221973
Babbitt420221994
Pine River320241970
Bena319671967
Glenwood320191993
Sherburne Nr220241990
Cass Lake220161980
Osseo220191977
Cromwell220241977
Wigwam Bay220231968
Mille Lacs220231967
Backus220241968
Evergreen220241969
Hovland220221973
Hart Lake220241968
Island Lake220171971
Sherry Lake220221971

Common Loon Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahomainemassachusettsmichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.