BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Loon Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Common Loon in Alaska has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-47%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Loon Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Loon in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Common Loon Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Alaska is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Alaska is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.000.71
20270.280.000.70
20280.270.000.69
20290.260.000.68
20300.250.000.67

Common Loon Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Common Loon in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willow920251993
Cape Nome920241998
Dillingham520191993
Skilak Lake419851978
Cold Bay (Short)419921985
Mcgrath420221998
Haines320241972
Tonsina320182018
Swan Lake Rd320251982
Lake Louise320111996
Kuskulana320241992
Kalifonsky220252013
Chena Hot Sp219861986
Sheep Mtn220111983
Thorne Bay220121991
Yakutat220231994
Wasilla219831983
Thorne Bay 2220252016
Sitka (Short)219851985
Seven Lakes220251986
Harlequin L.220172017
Galena (Short)220251998
Dietrich Cmp220242003
Paxson Lake219971993
Nabesna Road220242007

Common Loon Population Trend in Other States

idahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.