BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Loon Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWetland birds

Common Loon in Alaska has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-45%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Loon Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Loon in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Common Loon Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Alaska is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Alaska is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.69
20260.270.000.68
20270.260.000.67
20280.250.000.66
20290.240.000.65

Common Loon Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Common Loon in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape Nome920241998
Willow720241993
Dillingham520191993
Skilak Lake419851978
Cold Bay (Short)419921985
Mcgrath420221998
Haines320241972
Tonsina320182018
King Salmon320231994
Lake Louise320111996
Thorne Bay 2320222016
Kuskulana320241992
Burma Road320231996
Chena Hot Sp219861986
Sheep Mtn220111983
Swan Lake Rd220231982
Thorne Bay220121991
Yakutat220231994
Cold Bay220241993
Wasilla219831983
Sitka (Short)219851985
Harlequin L.220172017
Galena (Short)220221998
Dietrich Cmp220242003
Paxson Lake219971993

Common Loon Population Trend in Other States

idahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.