BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Loon Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Common Loon in New York has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Loon Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Loon has risen sharply in New York: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Loon Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in New York is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.09–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±510.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±510.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in New York is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.09–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±510.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.070.34
20260.210.080.35
20270.210.080.35
20280.220.090.35
20290.220.090.36

Common Loon Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Common Loon in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sabattis419831966
Speculator320171977
Inlet320171984
Wanakena320241993
Gabriels320241975
Horseshoe L.220171992
Old Forge 2220182007
St Regis Fls220171986
Mckeever220211974
Blue Ridge S220101987
Macdougall119991997
Pulaski120231972
Blue Ridge N120241979
Old Forge120061974
Newcomb120211986
Hope Falls119911975
North River120041997
S Horicon120072007
Ogdensburg119891989
Degrasse120062006
Parishville120242005
Tupper Lake119721972
Willsboro120191994
Philadelphia120241983
Downsville120041991

Common Loon Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenorth-dakotaoregonvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.