BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Loon Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Common Loon in New York has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+150%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Loon Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Loon in New York. See the full index history below.

Common Loon Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in New York is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.08–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±517.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±517.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in New York is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.08–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±517.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.070.34
20270.210.070.34
20280.210.080.35
20290.210.080.35
20300.220.080.35

Common Loon Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Common Loon in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sabattis419831966
Inlet320171984
Horseshoe L.220171992
Old Forge 2220182007
St Regis Fls220171986
Mckeever220211974
Blue Ridge N220251979
Blue Ridge S220101987
Wanakena220251993
Macdougall119991997
Pulaski120231972
Old Forge120061974
Newcomb120211986
Speculator120251977
Hope Falls119911975
North River120041997
S Horicon120072007
Ogdensburg119891989
Degrasse120062006
Gabriels120251975
Parishville120242005
Tupper Lake119721972
Willsboro120191994
Philadelphia120241983
Downsville120041991

Common Loon Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahomainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenorth-dakotaoregonvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.