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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Loon Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWetland birds

Common Loon in Michigan has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+117%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Loon Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Loon has surged in Michigan: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Loon Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Michigan is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.28–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Michigan is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.28–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.260.75
20260.510.260.75
20270.510.270.76
20280.520.270.77
20290.530.280.77

Common Loon Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Common Loon in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ned Lake420242000
Remus420242001
Chippewa Lk.420241993
Frederic320011971
Imp Lake320191992
Betchler Lks320241992
Bergland220192011
Herman220151983
Gibbs City220241987
Cunard220181993
Muskallonge220241967
Gilchrist220211979
Lake City219711971
Skegemog Pt220241988
Seney Nwr220241992
Harrietta119931993
Ontonagon120121985
Marenisco120181985
Bootjack120231992
Crystal Fls120241985
Maple Grove120142014
Ishpeming120231980
Brocky Lake120241987
Hungerford120192009
Shingleton120181977

Common Loon Population Trend in Other States

alaskaidahomainemassachusettsminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.