BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nelson's Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Nelson's Sparrow in Minnesota has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-36%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Nelson's Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Nelson's Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Nelson's Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Nelson's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nelson's Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.11
20260.040.000.11
20270.040.000.11
20280.040.000.11
20290.040.000.11

Nelson's Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Nelson's Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beltrami320011985
Mcgregor120052005
Wylie119811981
Erie119961996
Grygla119791979
Badger120002000
Lake Bronson119791978
Warroad119971997
Greenbush120242003
Glyndon120072007

Nelson's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

mainemontananorth-dakotasouth-dakotawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.