BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nelson's Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Nelson's Sparrow in North Dakota has surged: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+289%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Nelson's Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Nelson's Sparrow has surged in North Dakota: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Nelson's Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Nelson's Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.19–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±148.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nelson's Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.19–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.160.91
20260.540.170.91
20270.550.170.92
20280.560.180.93
20290.560.190.94

Nelson's Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Nelson's Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Edgeley320242009
Wimbledon320222009
Buchanan320241970
Cooperstown220221973
Bowesmont219771973
Lakota220091982
Webster220121989
Regan220001987
Denbigh220221974
Wild Rose220221985
Danzig 2220232019
Forman120211970
Sydney119671967
Lake George120211980
Danzig120132004
Kempton119801980
Emerado120191983
Horsehead Lk120241982
Nash120111985
Rolla120151998
Niles120131989
Dickinson120142013
Carpio120001969
Loraine120191987
Stanley120162000

Nelson's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

maineminnesotamontanasouth-dakotawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.