BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Minnesota has surged: up 507% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+507%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-billed Gull Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has surged in Minnesota: up 507% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ring-billed Gull Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Minnesota is projected to rise about 267% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±285.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+267%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±285.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Minnesota is projected to rise about 267% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±285.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.008.2
20263.90.008.2
20273.90.008.3
20284.00.008.3
20294.10.008.4

Ring-billed Gull Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lude4820231982
Appleton4020241990
St Stephen3120072002
Warroad2820221993
Big Stone2420121995
Nett Lake2020142014
Worthington1620162006
Nebish1120221984
Chokio1020241969
Le Center1020161997
Glyndon720041978
Osseo620241968
Pine River520221993
Waskish519781978
Huntley420081982
Erie419841982
Island Lake319881986
Hartland220071991
Minnetonka220231989
Dawson220242003
Wigwam Bay220181973
Cohasset220171993
Oklee219971982
Badger219791979
Brainerd220241993

Ring-billed Gull Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.