BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ring-billed Gull Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in New York has surged: up 52× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

52×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-billed Gull Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has surged in New York: up 52× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ring-billed Gull Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in New York is projected to rise about 243% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±314.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+243%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±314.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in New York is projected to rise about 243% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±314.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026140.0029
2027140.0029
2028140.0030
2029150.0030
2030150.0030

Ring-billed Gull Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Watertown30320121971
E Youngstown13020251967
West Bangor6019991990
Jones Beach4220131966
Hamburg3720251967
Pulaski2820241971
Westhampton2420061970
Macdougall2420241974
Romulus2220001986
Harris Hill2120252005
Cayuga1920151990
Dryden1720241987
Underwood1019951967
Castile920161981
North Easton919901989
Downsville719951991
West Seneca620041973
Churchville620241987
Mendon519941991
Gainesville520231987
Willsboro520241968
Cherry Hill420191988
Cicero Ctr420241969
Purdy419871987
Dannemora419771974

Ring-billed Gull Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.