BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in New York has surged: up 52× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

52×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-billed Gull Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has surged in New York: up 52× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ring-billed Gull Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in New York is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.30–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±272.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±272.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in New York is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.30–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±272.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025150.0030
2026150.0030
2027150.0030
2028150.1530
2029150.3030

Ring-billed Gull Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Watertown30320121971
Ogdensburg22820241980
Sheridan10020241988
E Youngstown8820231967
West Bangor6019991990
Jones Beach4220131966
East Java3120231985
Pulaski2820241971
Westhampton2420061970
Macdougall2420241974
Romulus2220001986
Hamburg2220241967
Cayuga1920151990
Dryden1720241987
Underwood1019951967
Castile920161981
North Easton919901989
Downsville719951991
West Seneca620041973
Churchville620241987
Mendon519941991
Gainesville520231987
Willsboro520241968
Cherry Hill420191988
Cicero Ctr420241969

Ring-billed Gull Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.