BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ring-billed Gull Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWetland birds

Ring-billed Gull in Michigan has surged: up 47× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

47×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ring-billed Gull Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ring-billed Gull has surged in Michigan: up 47× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ring-billed Gull Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Michigan is projected to rise about 130% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±251.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+130%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±251.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ring-billed Gull in Michigan is projected to rise about 130% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±251.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025120.0025
2026120.0025
2027120.0025
2028120.0025
2029120.0025

Ring-billed Gull Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Ring-billed Gull in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lawrence13220242018
Cathro11620161967
Beaver Lake7820112011
Prattville5920041987
Hamtramck5919841978
Pickford5820241973
Bootjack5420231986
St Charles4820191970
Traverse Cty3719851978
Lake City3220142000
Herman2220151983
Allegan Wma2120101994
New Troy2020241997
Herron1720162011
Isabella 21720232017
Adair1619901985
Coopersville1520241991
Riggsville1520191968
Hubbard Lake1519961976
Adrian1420171987
Walloon Lake1120041980
New Buffalo1120131993
Ontonagon720192010
Tahquamenon620061980
Skeels620072006

Ring-billed Gull Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.