BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Minnesota is projected to rise about 468% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±944%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+468%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±944%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Minnesota is projected to rise about 468% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±944%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.700.001.6
20270.710.001.6
20280.710.001.7
20290.720.001.7
20300.720.001.7

Great Egret Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Great Egret in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chokio North1120161993
Glenwood920191993
Dawson619891989
Ashby620211997
Osseo520251978
Millville319761967
Fairmont320172017
New London320141994
Lakeville220151979
Money Creek120221967
Hartland120091994
Sherburne Nr119991994
Ash Creek119891989
Minnetonka120241985
Arlington119941983
Big Stone120091995
Maynard119981998
Princeton120092009
Knapp120251975
St Stephen119951991
Appleton120172004
Gluek120191969
Chokio120241989
Edwards120121984
Glyndon120012001

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.