BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Minnesota has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-35%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Minnesota is projected to rise about 366% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±915.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+366%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±915.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Minnesota is projected to rise about 366% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±915.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.001.7
20260.750.001.7
20270.750.001.7
20280.760.001.7
20290.770.001.7

Great Egret Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Great Egret in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chokio North1120161993
Glenwood920191993
Osseo720241978
Dawson619891989
Ashby620211997
Millville319761967
Fairmont320172017
New London320141994
Lakeville220151979
Knapp220101975
Money Creek120221967
Hartland120091994
Sherburne Nr119991994
Ash Creek119891989
Minnetonka120241985
Arlington119941983
Big Stone120091995
Maynard119981998
Princeton120092009
St Stephen119951991
Appleton120172004
Gluek120191969
Chokio120241989
Edwards120121984
Glyndon120012001

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.