BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-57%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Oregon is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Oregon is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.420.001.3
20270.420.001.3
20280.420.001.3
20290.410.001.3
20300.410.001.3

Great Egret Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Great Egret in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Modoc Point 23920252024
Fish Lake2520221973
Modoc Point1720181974
Coquille820251996
Trout Creek520002000
Scappoose420252005
Warner Vally420231996
Princeton319851972
Harney Lake320241994
Wedderburn220251987
Merrill220181994
Catlow Rim220252014
Umatilla220222022
Glasgow220251990
Hauser119701970
Malheur Nwr119951986
Adair120221997
Adrian120252025
Blizzard Gap120241985
Sheaville120142014
Prospect120102010

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.