BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in South Carolina has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has fallen sharply in South Carolina: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.74 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.74 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.800.003.3
20270.790.003.2
20280.770.003.2
20290.760.003.2
20300.740.003.2

Great Egret Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Great Egret in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Johns Isle1619791966
Bennettsville1320172001
New Holland520211968
Kiawah Island520251998
Nixville520251998
Jamestown420041971
Barton Creek420171990
Bishopville320251986
Dale320251998
Adams Run320251989
Rome220221971
Whitmire220242021
Olar220132001
Pinewood220081998
Hardeeville120231967
Holly Hill120251972
Coward120161967
Foreston120211966
Wagener120211967
Dillon120062001
Sandhills120031997
Walterboro120171970
Nixonville119951993
New Ellenton120232023
Kingstree120102010

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.