BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in Alabama

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Alabama has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

18×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Alabama: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Alabama is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 8.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.5–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Alabama is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 8.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.5–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.35.1
20273.21.45.1
20283.31.45.2
20293.41.55.2
20303.41.55.3

Great Egret Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Great Egret in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Dam27820251994
Wedgeworth4420251985
Grangeburg4320241968
Riverside3720131999
Harrell3120251970
Gainestown Ferry2620151999
Brantley1520251995
Madrid1420211994
Valhermoso Spgs1120091968
Autaugaville1120191999
Alabama Pt 21020062004
Greensport820251996
Fairview820251989
Gastonburg720221996
Stevenson620241996
Citronelle620082003
Rock Chapel520241995
St. Elmo520251996
Pine Grove420251971
Latham419981966
Helicon420251996
Dauphin Is 3420212021
Chacaloochee Bay420192009
Liberty320221997
Sprague320231966

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.