BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Kansas has surged: up 41× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

41×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Kansas: up 41× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Kansas is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±225.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±225.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Kansas is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±225.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.001.8
20260.710.001.8
20270.730.001.9
20280.750.001.9
20290.760.001.9

Great Egret Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Great Egret in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Albert8320231969
Rock Creek2920142005
Goessel1020022000
Trading Post820242000
Melrose320231993
Wreford320142006
Dover220222016
Barclay220101995
Berwet220242000
Susank220022002
Olsburg220112002
Humboldt120151991
Lapland120032003
Wellington120241983
Dalton120052004
Ellinor120122012
Buckeye120002000
Grantville120162016
Minneapolis119941994
Pittsburg120172011
Morehead120232023
Reece120242011
Longton120211996
Solomon120012001

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.