BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Georgia

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Georgia has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has collapsed in Georgia: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Georgia is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Georgia is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.006.2
20260.640.006.2
20270.590.006.1
20280.550.006.1
20290.510.006.0

Great Egret Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Great Egret in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hawkinsville1020241970
Shiloh1020242012
Henderson920241976
Newton820241975
Shannon819951995
Ousley820242017
Pitts720241977
Weber720242013
Dickey620182007
Darien520191966
Doles520191983
Thornton Road520242005
Tarver420241991
Big Oak420242014
Glenmore420242013
Baxley320191966
Athens319791979
Lacross320191980
Deepstep320231993
Hollonville 2320192019
Colonels Island320232005
Millen320242006
Everett City220181976
Nashville220241978
Fairplay219901990

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.