BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in North Dakota has surged: up 363% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

+363%Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in North Dakota: up 363% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

Great Egret Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in North Dakota is projected to rise about 173% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.09–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±211.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+173%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±211.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in North Dakota is projected to rise about 173% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.09–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±211.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.040.67
20260.370.060.69
20270.380.070.70
20280.390.080.71
20290.400.090.72

Great Egret Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Great Egret in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forman420221996
Lakota 2420102010
Montpelier320092009
Horsehead Lk320241998
Edgeley120132013
Lake George120192000
Danzig120102010
Sheyenne Lk120232023
Buchanan120242015
Braddock119971997
Danzig 2120232023
Lakota120092006
Niles120222017

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.