BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in North Dakota has surged: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

+259%Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Great Egret Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in North Dakota is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.09–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±158.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in North Dakota is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.09–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.040.66
20270.360.050.67
20280.380.060.69
20290.390.070.69
20300.400.090.71

Great Egret Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Great Egret in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forman420221996
Montpelier320092009
Sheyenne Lk220252023
Horsehead Lk220251998
Edgeley120132013
Lake George120192000
Danzig120102010
Buchanan120252015
Braddock119971997
Danzig 2120232023
Lakota120092006
Niles120222017
Regan120232023
Lakota 2120252010

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.