BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-2%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.05
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05

Great Egret Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Great Egret in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brunnerville 2220112011
Labott119711971
Doe Run119961996
Espyville119961996
West Grove119961972
Jacobus120232009
Ferris Crnrs119961996
Landisburg120001989
Mifflintown120002000
Middletown120061994
Brunnerville120031990
Mount Joy120232023

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.