BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Arkansas has surged: up 551% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+551%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Arkansas: up 551% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Arkansas is projected to rise about 240% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.46–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+240%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±195.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Arkansas is projected to rise about 240% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.46–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.00.285.7
20263.00.325.7
20273.10.375.8
20283.10.425.8
20293.20.465.9

Great Egret Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Great Egret in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Havana2220212013
Wilson1620221998
South Bend1220231973
Springhill920222010
Stamps520241967
Dell520182018
Ulm520241986
Eudora420241975
Hope420241967
Hughes420231974
Augusta319941969
England320242010
Gillett320242010
Coal Hill220231990
Maynard220061994
Old Milo120011992
Ramsey119971988
Locust Bayou120231994
Ashdown120221969
Four Lakes119961996
Crowley'S Ridge120242012
Poyen120071986
Hollywood119921992
Saffell120192009
Massard120141977

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.