BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Louisiana has surged: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+244%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Louisiana: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Louisiana is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Louisiana is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025180.0037
2026180.0037
2027180.0037
2028180.0037
2029180.0037

Great Egret Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Great Egret in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Natchitoches18519911987
Maurice14920241988
Woodlawn12220212008
Gran Chenier10719821967
Ramah7220241988
Creole6919871967
Richard6620241998
Forked Island 25520112010
Morgan City5219861970
Ville Platte5220191988
Cypress4519871967
Esther3720241988
River Road3220241987
Grand Isle2720192010
Junior2619911987
Sabine Nwr 22520172009
Ltl Chenier2220241986
Hackberry1820161967
Berwick1820181987
Mount Union1720222000
Frogmore1520241998
Forked Island1320242008
Fishville1220141995
Kaplan1220231998
Tensas Nwr1220241987

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.