BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in New Jersey has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-13%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Great Egret Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in New Jersey is projected to rise about 192% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+192%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±186.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in New Jersey is projected to rise about 192% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.4
20261.10.002.4
20271.10.002.4
20281.10.002.4
20291.10.002.5

Great Egret Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Great Egret in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedricktown1220111993
Villas1119811980
Del Haven419911991
Ocean City420241979
Pedricktown 2420242013
Cape May Ch420131992
Deepwater319711969
Spraguetown 3320212021
Toms River220231994
Spraguetown 2220122002
Greenwich120171967
Six Points120221980
Dover120182018
Gillette119951995
Keyport120172011
Cranbury120151997
Friendship120002000
Winslow120212002
Ramseysburg119981998

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.