BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in Missouri

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Missouri has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+32%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Missouri is projected to rise about 272% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±448.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+272%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±448.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Missouri is projected to rise about 272% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±448.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.001.3
20270.360.001.3
20280.370.001.3
20290.380.001.3
20300.380.001.3

Great Egret Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Great Egret in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hayti1820212021
Kennett820232019
New Point520221994
Norborne320222017
Cp Girardeau320251967
Rockingham320182018
Sweden220222022
Blodgett220252021
Frankford220192003
Deventer120251968
Pulaski120212005
Pineville119881988
Akers120052005
Handley119811981
Filley120101987
Weston120212021
Syracuse119811981
Centertown120112011
Ohio120191994
Milford120222018
Madison120152015
Whitewater120252023
Barks120242024
Moselle120162016
Sedalia120172001

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.