BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Missouri

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Missouri has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+60%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has risen sharply in Missouri: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.001.3
20260.390.001.3
20270.390.001.3
20280.400.001.3
20290.410.001.3

Great Egret Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Great Egret in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deventer19920191968
Hayti1820212021
Kennett820232019
New Point520221994
Norborne320222017
Rockingham320182018
Sweden220222022
Blodgett220232021
Frankford220192003
Pulaski120212005
Pineville119881988
Cp Girardeau120241967
Akers120052005
Handley119811981
Filley120101987
Weston120212021
Syracuse119811981
Centertown120112011
Ohio120191994
Milford120222018
Madison120152015
Whitewater120232023
Barks120242024
Moselle120162016
Sedalia120172001

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.