BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Mississippi has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

12×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Mississippi: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.0 (95% range 4.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.0 (95% range 4.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.44.113
20278.54.313
20288.74.413
20298.84.613
20309.04.713

Great Egret Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Great Egret in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Macon5520251966
Eagle Lake5320252012
Panther Swamp Nwr3320182016
Tallahatchie3120251996
Tchula 22719941977
Isola2220221972
Necaise1220161984
Tchula1119711970
Trace South1120102007
Lake Mary1019901974
Tchula 31020251995
Grenada Lake720192017
Corinth620252011
Delta N.F.620211995
Cybur520191978
Duffee520081997
Trace Hinds520252014
Commerce419931993
Benton420251996
Monticello420172017
Water Valley420182015
Trace Madison420192015
Winterville320112009
De Soto320132013
Dundee220221987

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.