BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Texas has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Texas. See the full index history below.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Texas is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.54–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.473.9
20262.20.493.9
20272.20.513.9
20282.20.523.9
20292.20.543.9

Great Egret Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great Egret in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bayside 23220041997
Loyola Beach 22920242010
Neches Bith2720172016
Vanderbilt2619701969
Danbury2520241967
Henrietta2520221986
Chinquapin2520241995
Moon Lake 22320242012
Stowell1920231969
L. Atascosa Nwr1720231998
Moon Lake1620111994
New Waverly1320191973
Massey Lake1220241970
Dallas1220241972
Bayside1120101994
Chandler 21020232005
Haskell1020241995
Wills Point1020161996
Indianola920241967
Bonner820241994
Kingsville720191976
Carlos720241993
Cavasara Cr.719971997
Bruceville620241995
Millett 2620212016

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.