BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Texas has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Texas. See the full index history below.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Texas is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.53–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Texas is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.53–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.20.473.8
20272.20.483.9
20282.20.503.9
20292.20.513.9
20302.20.533.9

Great Egret Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great Egret in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stowell5820251969
Bayside 23220041997
Loyola Beach 22920242010
Massey Lake2820251970
Neches Bith2720172016
Vanderbilt2619701969
Henrietta2520221986
Port Acres2120251994
Danbury2020251967
Moon Lake1620111994
L. Atascosa Nwr1620251998
Dallas1220241972
Bayside1120101994
Chandler 21020232005
Haskell1020241995
Bonner1020251994
Wills Point1020161996
Indianola920241967
Oyster Lake820251995
Bayside 3820252005
Kingsville720191976
Rock Island720251967
Chinquapin720251995
Cavasara Cr.719971997
Moon Lake 2720252012

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.