BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Florida has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has fallen sharply in Florida: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Florida is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Florida is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.10.0010
20275.00.0010
20285.00.0010
20295.00.0010
20304.90.0010

Great Egret Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Great Egret in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 223720112004
Sandy6020151987
Deanville4420191991
Key Largo4319901987
Merritt Isl4120111991
Eglin A.F.B.3919971995
Wildernes Pk3820141992
Alva3320231987
Corbett3220241987
Pinecrest3020251966
Shawano2320021987
Salvista2219791967
Port St Joe 22220182015
Mossy Head2020101992
Tamiami2019741966
Winter Gardn1920191987
St Lucie1920251987
Hildreth 21620112011
Devils Gardn1520251987
Flamingo1520251983
Holey Land1520251988
St Vincent I1520251995
Weaver Stn1420191987
Crewsville1420252000
Merritt Island 21320142014

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.