BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Florida has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has fallen sharply in Florida: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Florida is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Florida is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.20.0010
20265.10.0010
20275.10.0010
20285.10.0010
20295.00.0010

Great Egret Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Great Egret in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 223720112004
Sandy6020151987
Deanville4420191991
Key Largo4319901987
Merritt Isl4120111991
Eglin A.F.B.3919971995
Wildernes Pk3820141992
Alva3320231987
Corbett3220241987
Mabel 22620192012
Devils Gardn2420241987
Shawano2320021987
Salvista2219791967
Port St Joe 22220182015
Mossy Head2020101992
Tamiami2019741966
Winter Gardn1920191987
Holey Land1920241988
Hildreth 21620112011
Romeo1520241966
Webb1520241990
Weaver Stn1420191987
Merritt Island 21320142014
Clewiston1120232015
Ft Gadsden1020041970

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.