BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Virginia has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-28%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Virginia is projected to rise about 284% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±506.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+284%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±506.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Virginia is projected to rise about 284% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±506.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.000.57
20270.230.000.58
20280.230.000.58
20290.240.000.58
20300.240.000.58

Great Egret Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Great Egret in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Backbay619741966
Finchley420212021
Pungo320251975
Cape Charles220121992
Dismal Swamp220161992
Branchville220101990
Cornland220141990
Taylorstown 2220232017
Nat Tunnel120192019
Rural Retrt120232023
Gloucester120122002
Colonial Pky119981992
Chincoteag W120221992
Waverly119831983
Surry120091987
Quinby120111982
Irisburg120232023
Wylliesburg119821982
Brodnax119961978
Newsoms120171969
Newville120072001

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.