BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Michigan has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

+77%Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Egret in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.01–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±177.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.01–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.18
20270.090.000.18
20280.090.010.18
20290.100.010.18
20300.100.010.19

Great Egret Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Great Egret in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Buffalo520082008
No Bradley320252015
St Charles220192018
Hamburg 2120212021
Big Blue Lk120222022
Lawrence120042004
Herron120162016
Galesburg119881988
Howardsville120192017
Lapeer120042004
Rochester120252014
Hartland120091997
Richmond120192009
Adrian120062006
Prattville120112003
Cathro120162011
Owendale120172017
Waldenburg120132009
Cohoctah120232023

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.