BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Egret Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in North Carolina has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+148%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in North Carolina: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Egret Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in North Carolina is projected to rise about 144% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.29–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±209.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+144%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±209.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in North Carolina is projected to rise about 144% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.29–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±209.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.232.1
20271.20.252.1
20281.20.262.1
20291.20.272.1
20301.20.292.1

Great Egret Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Great Egret in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Myrtle Grove1620251966
Merrimon1020231968
Jackson620171996
Shallotte519911978
Hallsboro420191981
Cypress Cr420192005
Wards Corner320241966
Dismal Swamp320102010
Cypress Lakes320042004
Jarvisburg 2320252000
Dortches320251995
Supply320251993
Waco319911991
California 2320232014
Mashoes219821972
Saxapahaw220112005
California220131972
Bethel220212018
Genoa220211996
Sheffield219961996
Fairview220252025
Rowland220232011
Arapahoe119921992
Beargrass119811981
Speed120251980

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.