BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Egret Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesWetland birds

Great Egret in Tennessee has surged: up 644% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+644%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Egret Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Egret has surged in Tennessee: up 644% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Great Egret Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Tennessee is projected to rise about 561% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±247.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+561%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±247.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Egret in Tennessee is projected to rise about 561% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±247.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.5
20261.10.002.5
20271.20.002.5
20281.20.002.5
20291.20.002.6

Great Egret Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Great Egret in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pawpaw1220121974
Pawpaw 21020232013
Tiptonville320231973
Jefferson Cty320061984
Trenton320091986
Moscow220231997
Big Sandy220242019
Humboldt220221967
Signal Mtn120242022
Brownsville120151994
Tibbs120062001
Whiteville120191993
Jones Gap120152015
Silerton120171985
Belotes Bend120151992
White House120162016
Glen120242024

Great Egret Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.